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Forecasting

Aug 31, 2021

Q: Why so many product shortages? A: The Perfect Storm

I have had a number of calls this past week with various media outlets, including the Associated Press, WRAL, Forbes, and even the New York Times! All of these reporters… 

Apr 27, 2012

Demand Forecasting: A Cross Discipline Perspective Part II: Probabilistic and Ensemble Forecasting

In forecasting for demand there are two predominant methods of modeling available: deterministic and probabilistic. Normally just saying the names of these techniques is enough to turn someone off from… 

Apr 26, 2012

Demand Forecasting: A Cross Discipline Perspective Part I: Model Output Statistics (MOS)

This paper will highlight some of the numerical modeling techniques used in weather forecasting that can be applied to improve business forecasting. Demand and weather forecasting are comparable in so… 

Jan 26, 2011

References: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

References Most introductory textbooks in Operations and Supply Chain Management offer a good discussion of forecasting models. Techniques such as time series models, regression, and measures of forecasting accuracy are… 

Jan 26, 2011

Summary: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

Summary Forecasting is a critical part of CPFR. Fortunately, there are a number of well-developed tools and strategies for developing forecasts. Avoid forecasting values when you can calculate them. For… 

Jan 26, 2011

Q2 Forecasting: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

Q2 Forecasting What Is Q2 Forecasting? Quantitative-Qualitative Forecasting Basic ideas behind Q2 forecasting: Wherever possible, forecasters should first develop a quantitative forecast, then use this for the basis for more… 

Jan 26, 2011

3 – Step Process: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

3 – Step Process STEP 1: Divide Items into Three Major Categories STEP 2: Apply the simplest tools needed to do the job STEP 3: Spend effort on the “difficult… 

Jan 25, 2011

Introduction: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

Introduction p. Learning Objectives Requirements of Forecasting Section Outline Learning Objectives By the end of this module, you will be able to: List the basic rules of forecasting, and explain… 

Jan 25, 2011

Qualitative Methods :Measuring Forecast Accuracy : A Tutorial

Qualitative Methods Common Qualitative Forecasting Methods EXAMPLE: Life Cycle analogy Analyzing the Life Cycle Data for the Previous Version Questions to Consider When Using the Life Cycle Analogy to Forecast… 

Jan 25, 2011

Multiple Regression: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

Multiple Regression Advanced techniques can be used when there is trend or seasonality, or when other factors (such as price discounts) must be considered. What is Multiple Regression? Resulting Forecast…