Forecasting

Aug 31, 2021  |  Articles

Q: Why so many product shortages? A: The Perfect Storm

I have had a number of calls this past week with various media outlets, including the Associated Press, WRAL, Forbes, and even the New York Times! All of these reporters are asking the same question, which was best captured by […]

Apr 27, 2012  |  Articles

Demand Forecasting: A Cross Discipline Perspective Part II: Probabilistic and Ensemble Forecasting

In forecasting for demand there are two predominant methods of modeling available: deterministic and probabilistic. Normally just saying the names of these techniques is enough to turn someone off from the topic, however, it is important to understand the strengths […]

Apr 26, 2012  |  Articles

Demand Forecasting: A Cross Discipline Perspective Part I: Model Output Statistics (MOS)

This paper will highlight some of the numerical modeling techniques used in weather forecasting that can be applied to improve business forecasting. Demand and weather forecasting are comparable in so much as they are both complex environments in which many […]

Jan 26, 2011  |  Articles

References: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

References Most introductory textbooks in Operations and Supply Chain Management offer a good discussion of forecasting models. Techniques such as time series models, regression, and measures of forecasting accuracy are routinely covered in these books. One possible source: Cecil Bozarth […]

Jan 26, 2011  |  Articles

Summary: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

Summary Forecasting is a critical part of CPFR. Fortunately, there are a number of well-developed tools and strategies for developing forecasts. Avoid forecasting values when you can calculate them. For example, in an ideal world, we would only forecast POS […]

Jan 26, 2011  |  Articles

Q2 Forecasting: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

Q2 Forecasting What Is Q2 Forecasting? Quantitative-Qualitative Forecasting Basic ideas behind Q2 forecasting: Wherever possible, forecasters should first develop a quantitative forecast, then use this for the basis for more qualitative analysis. Historical data is never a perfect indicator of […]

Jan 26, 2011  |  Articles

3 – Step Process: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

3 – Step Process STEP 1: Divide Items into Three Major Categories STEP 2: Apply the simplest tools needed to do the job STEP 3: Spend effort on the “difficult few” Other Considerations Q2 Forecasting h2. STEP 1: Divide Items […]

Jan 25, 2011  |  Articles

Single Regression: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

Single Regression Advanced techniques can be used when there is trend or seasonality, or when other factors (such as price discounts) must be considered. What is Single Regression? EXAMPLE: 16 Months of Demand History EXAMPLE: Building a Regression Model to […]

Jan 25, 2011  |  Articles

Double Exponential Smoothing: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

Double Exponential Smoothing What Is Double Exponential Smoothing? Time Series with Trend: Double Exponential Smoothing h2. What Is Double Exponential Smoothing? …like regular exponential smoothing, except includes a component to pick up trends. Time Series with Trend: Double Exponential Smoothing […]

Jan 25, 2011  |  Articles

Exponential Smoothing: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

Exponential Smoothing What is Exponential Smoothing? Exponential Smoothing Forecaset with a = .3 h2. What is Exponential Smoothing? A type of weighted moving averaging model Part of many forecasting packages; ideal for developing forecasts of lots of smaller items Needs […]