Forecasting

Jan 25, 2011

Measuring Forecast Accuracy: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

Measuring Forecast Accuracy How Do We Measure Forecast Accuracy? Measures of Forecast Accuracy Mean Forecast Error (MFE) Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) Tracking Signal Other Measures How Do We Measure Forecast… 

Jan 25, 2011

Single Regression: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

Single Regression Advanced techniques can be used when there is trend or seasonality, or when other factors (such as price discounts) must be considered. What is Single Regression? EXAMPLE: 16… 

Jan 25, 2011

Double Exponential Smoothing: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

Double Exponential Smoothing What Is Double Exponential Smoothing? Time Series with Trend: Double Exponential Smoothing h2. What Is Double Exponential Smoothing? …like regular exponential smoothing, except includes a component to… 

Jan 25, 2011

Exponential Smoothing: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

Exponential Smoothing What is Exponential Smoothing? Exponential Smoothing Forecaset with a = .3 h2. What is Exponential Smoothing? A type of weighted moving averaging model Part of many forecasting packages;… 

Jan 25, 2011

Time Series Models: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

Time Series Models Time Series Models Time Series Components of Demand… Basic Idea Behind Time Series Models Moving Average Models Table of Forecasts & Demand Values… … and Resulting Graph… 

Jan 25, 2011

Basic Rules of Forecasting: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

Basic Rules of Forecasting p. Forecasts Forecasts Are No Substitue for Calculated Values Two Distinct Approaches to Forecasting h2. What Are the Basic Rules of Forecasts Forecasts are almost always…