Introduction: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

Introduction

p. Learning Objectives
Requirements of Forecasting
Section Outline

Learning Objectives

By the end of this module, you will be able to:

• List the basic rules of forecasting, and explain what is meant by the rule, “Forecasts are no substitute for calculated demand.”
• Develop and interpret simple time series forecasting models.
• Develop and interpret simple and multiple regression forecasting models, and use regression to develop both time series and causal forecasts models.
• Calculate and interpret measures of forecast accuracy.
• Explain when quantitative versus qualitative forecasting techniques should be used, and the advantages and disadvantages of each.

• Develop forecasting strategies for items in your organization.

h2. Requirements of Forecasting

Forecasting and Planning activities under CPFR often require participants to . . .

• Generate forecasts
  • Sales forecasts
  • Order forecasts

• Shipments

• Predict / evaluate what impact some business decision or other factor has on demand
  • Price discounts
  • Promotions

• Seasonality effects

• To properly carry out these activities, CPFR personnel must often apply quantitative analysis and qualitative judgment.

h2. Section Outline

• Basic rules of forecasting
• Quantitative versus qualitative forecasting methods
• Time series models
• Advanced techniques
• Qualitative methods
• Measuring forecast accuracy

• Forecasting strategies