Introduction: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial
By the end of this module, you will be able to:
- List the basic rules of forecasting, and explain what is meant by the rule, “Forecasts are no substitute for calculated demand.”
- Develop and interpret simple time series forecasting models.
- Develop and interpret simple and multiple regression forecasting models, and use regression to develop both time series and causal forecasts models.
- Calculate and interpret measures of forecast accuracy.
- Explain when quantitative versus qualitative forecasting techniques should be used, and the advantages and disadvantages of each.
- Develop forecasting strategies for items in your organization.
Forecasting and Planning activities under CPFR often require participants to . . .
- Generate forecasts
- Sales forecasts
- Order forecasts
- Predict / evaluate what impact some business decision or other factor has on demand
- Price discounts
- Seasonality effects
- To properly carry out these activities, CPFR personnel must often apply quantitative analysis and qualitative judgment.
h2. Section Outline
- Basic rules of forecasting
- Quantitative versus qualitative forecasting methods
- Time series models
- Advanced techniques
- Qualitative methods
- Measuring forecast accuracy
- Forecasting strategies