Introduction: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

Introduction

p. Learning Objectives
Requirements of Forecasting
Section Outline

Learning Objectives

By the end of this module, you will be able to:

  • List the basic rules of forecasting, and explain what is meant by the rule, “Forecasts are no substitute for calculated demand.”
  • Develop and interpret simple time series forecasting models.
  • Develop and interpret simple and multiple regression forecasting models, and use regression to develop both time series and causal forecasts models.
  • Calculate and interpret measures of forecast accuracy.
  • Explain when quantitative versus qualitative forecasting techniques should be used, and the advantages and disadvantages of each.
  • Develop forecasting strategies for items in your organization.

h2. Requirements of Forecasting

Forecasting and Planning activities under CPFR often require participants to . . .

  • Generate forecasts
    • Sales forecasts
    • Order forecasts
  • Shipments
  • Predict / evaluate what impact some business decision or other factor has on demand
    • Price discounts
    • Promotions
  • Seasonality effects
  • To properly carry out these activities, CPFR personnel must often apply quantitative analysis and qualitative judgment.

h2. Section Outline

  • Basic rules of forecasting
  • Quantitative versus qualitative forecasting methods
  • Time series models
  • Advanced techniques
  • Qualitative methods
  • Measuring forecast accuracy
  • Forecasting strategies