Instructor:

Cecil Bozarth , PhD
North Carolina State University
Author of "Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management," 2nd edition, Pearson, Prentice-Hall

 

SECTION Index

Introduction

Basic Rules of Forecasting

Time Series Models

   1. Exponential Smoothing

   2. Double Exponential Smoothing

Advanced Techniques

   1. Single Regression

   2. Multiple Regression

Qualitative Methods

Measuring Forecast Accuracy

Forecasting Strategies

   1. 3-Step Process

   2. Q2 Forecasting

Summary

References

 

 

Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

Introduction

 

Learning Objectives

Requirements of Forecasting

Section Outline

 

Learning Objectives

By the end of this module, you will be able to:

• List the basic rules of forecasting, and explain what is meant by the rule, “Forecasts are no substitute for calculated demand.”

• Develop and interpret simple time series forecasting models.

• Develop and interpret simple and multiple regression forecasting models, and use regression to develop both time series and causal forecasts models.

• Calculate and interpret measures of forecast accuracy.

• Explain when quantitative versus qualitative forecasting techniques should be used, and the advantages and disadvantages of each.

• Develop forecasting strategies for items in your organization.

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Requirements of Forecasting

Forecasting and Planning activities under CPFR often require participants to . . .

• Generate forecasts
• Sales forecasts
• Order forecasts
• Shipments

• Predict / evaluate what impact some business decision or other factor has on demand
• Price discounts
• Promotions
• Seasonality effects

• To properly carry out these activities, CPFR personnel must often apply quantitative analysis and qualitative judgment.

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Section Outline

• Basic rules of forecasting

• Quantitative versus qualitative forecasting methods

• Time series models

• Advanced techniques

• Qualitative methods

• Measuring forecast accuracy

• Forecasting strategies

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