Instructor:

Cecil Bozarth , PhD
North Carolina State University
Author of "Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management," 2nd edition, Pearson, Prentice-Hall

SECTION Index

Introduction

Basic Rules of Forecasting

Time Series Models

   1. Exponential Smoothing

   2. Double Exponential Smoothing

Advanced Techniques

   1. Single Regression

   2. Multiple Regression

Qualitative Methods

Measuring Forecast Accuracy

Forecasting Strategies

   1. 3-Step Process

   2. Q2 Forecasting

Summary

References

Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial

Exponential Smoothing

What is Exponential Smoothing?

Exponential Smoothing Forecaset with a = .3

What is Exponential Smoothing?

• A type of weighted moving averaging model

• Part of many forecasting packages; ideal for developing forecasts of lots of smaller items

• Needs only three numbers:                                         

  Ft-1    =    Forecast for the period before                                                           

       current time period t     

  At-1   =     Actual demand for the period                                                            

       before current time period t

   a       =    Weight between 0 and 1

• Formula                                                           

                     

• As a gets closer to 1, the more weight put on the most recent demand number

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Exponential Smoothing Forecaset with a = .3

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